Gold and Crude Oil Edge Slightly Higher Ahead of CPI and OPEC Monthly Report

Gold prices rose as the U.S. dollar pulled back ahead of key inflation data release this week; all eyes are on the CPI data. Crude oil experienced minor fluctuations, with supply tightness due to production cuts being the primary driver of current oil prices. This week’s focus is on the OPEC monthly report.

Gold >>

On Monday, in the U.S. market, the spot gold price was trading near $1,923 per ounce. The focus of this week will be on the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, scheduled for Wednesday.

It is expected that the August CPI will increase by 0.5% month-on-month, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% month-on-month.

The U.S. dollar retreated ahead of the key U.S. inflation data CPI release, leading to an increase in gold prices. Gold briefly surpassed $1,930 and is poised to mark its best trading day in nearly two weeks.

Today’s economic calendar is relatively light, with the market’s main focus on this week’s U.S. CPI inflation report, which will have significant implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

Gold has maintained a narrow trading range, currently hovering around $1,923, with a daily high reaching $1,930 and intraday fluctuations of about $15.

Gold previously surged to $1,953 and then fell from $1,946 to $1,915. The current key support level is $1,915, which has been tested multiple times but not broken.

After touching the $1,915 support, gold is attempting to stabilize around the $1,920 level, with a current trend of steady rebound. The immediate resistance levels are in the $1,928-$1,930 range.

Technical Analysis:

Today’s short-term trading strategy for gold suggests a primary focus on short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary option during pullbacks.

  • Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 1933-1938.
  • Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 1912-1907.

WTI Crude Oil >>

On Monday, U.S. crude oil experienced slight fluctuations as crude oil futures closed down $0.22, or 0.25%, at $87.29 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed down $0.01, or 0.01%, at $90.64 per barrel, while INE crude oil futures rose $0.01, closing at 696.2 yuan.

This week, investors are closely watching the monthly reports from the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Last Friday, international crude oil prices closed near $87.20 per barrel, and U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending September 1st fell to the lowest level since December 2, 2022.

Inventories declined by a total of 6.307 million barrels, marking the largest drop since August 25, 2023. According to Platts Analytics, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production fell to its lowest level since May 2021, at 8.95 million barrels per day.

Supply tightness due to production cuts remains a key driver of current oil prices, and in the past few days, oil prices have been consolidating near their highs, displaying resistance to significant declines.

Yesterday, oil prices stabilized above the $86.70 level after some volatility, showing sideways trading with resistance to declines.

During the Asian and European sessions, prices repeatedly stabilized above $86.70. In the late U.S. session, prices briefly broke through the $88.10 level but faced resistance and retraced, ultimately settling near the $87 level with some oscillations.

Technical Analysis:

Today’s short-term strategy for crude oil suggests a primary focus on going long during pullbacks, with shorting on rallies considered as a secondary option.

  • Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 88.5-89.0.
  • Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 86.3-85.8.


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