Gold and Crude Oil Markets Closed on Friday, Gold to Digest PCE Data, Crude Maintains Its Uptrend

Due to the Good Friday holiday last week, gold and crude oil markets were closed for one day. The U.S. PCE data for February was released last Friday, indicating that the U.S. price increases were mild, with the costs of services excluding housing and energy significantly slowing down.

This keeps the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June still alive. Today, the gold market will digest the impact of this data. The market expects that OPEC+ production cuts and attacks on Russian refineries will lead to supply tightness, and positive Chinese manufacturing data have both played a role in driving crude oil, maintaining its recent upward trend.

Gold >>

The gold market was closed last Friday due to the Good Friday holiday. On the same day, the U.S. PCE data for February was released, showing that the price increase in the U.S. was mild, with the costs of services excluding housing and energy significantly slowing down.

This keeps the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June still alive. Today, the precious metals market will digest the impact of this data. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated last Friday that the latest U.S. inflation data “met expectations,” seemingly setting the tone for a Fed rate cut this year.

Gold has been one of the better-performing major commodities so far this year, with a first-quarter gain of over 8%. Apart from the prospect of major central banks easing monetary policy, the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is enhanced by heightened geopolitical tensions, while purchases by central banks and global consumers will also boost the gold price.

In the coming week, economic data such as the U.S. non-farm payrolls report and global PMIs, as well as speeches by Fed officials, will bring a new wave of volatility to the gold market.

The market is still showing a bullish trend, with the appearance of large bullish candles on the monthly, weekly, and daily charts, suggesting that gold prices are expected to continue reaching new highs this week.

On the monthly chart, gold has risen USD 198 from a low of USD 2038, showing a strong upward trend. On the weekly chart, gold has stabilized from a low of USD 2163 and risen USD 73, further validating the sustainability of the uptrend.

On the daily chart, gold stabilized from a low of USD 2187 last Thursday and has risen USD 49, indicating that bullish momentum remains strong.

Technical Analysis:

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks.

  • Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2252-2255.
  • Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2222-2217.

WTI Crude Oil >>

The oil market was closed on Friday, but expectations of OPEC+ production cuts, attacks on Russian refineries leading to supply tightness, and positive Chinese manufacturing data all contributed to pushing crude oil prices up, maintaining their recent uptrend.

WTI crude futures slightly increased by 0.1% to USD 83.18 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 3.2%; Brent crude futures are currently at USD 87.00 per barrel, unchanged from last Friday’s settlement price, with the contract rising 2.4% over the week.

Given that many countries are on holiday for Easter, trading activity is expected to be relatively subdued on Monday. Both benchmark crude oils have maintained an upward trend for the third consecutive month, with Brent crude staying above USD 85 since mid-March.

This upward trend is backed by OPEC+’s commitment to extend production cuts until the end of June, which could lead to a tight supply of crude oil during the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere.

Investors are also closely watching U.S. economic data for signs that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates this year, as this would support the global economy and oil demand.

The crude oil market opened last week at a position of 81.19, then dipped to 80.9 before quickly rising to 82.84, followed by a rapid decline.

The weekly low reached 80.84 before the market strongly rallied on Thursday, hitting a weekly high of 83.53, then consolidated, and finally closed the week at 83.37 with a candlestick that had a slightly longer lower shadow than its upper shadow, indicating a medium bullish sentiment.

Technical Analysis:

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks

  • Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 83.0-83.6.
  • Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 80.0-80.6.

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