Gold Edges Up, Oil Declines; Market Focuses on Non-Farm Payroll Data

The U.S. employment data is improving, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rising by more than 1%. This caused gold prices to lose their bullish momentum, experiencing a slight decline after a small initial increase, ultimately rebounding to a marginal gain in the 2040 range.

Factors such as higher-than-expected U.S. crude oil inventories and easing concerns over the Red Sea crisis contributed to a decline in oil prices amid volatile and tug-of-war trading. Today, the market is closely monitoring non-farm payroll data.

Gold >>

On Thursday, following the release of optimistic employment data in the United States, the spot gold price slightly declined from above USD 2050 per ounce to around USD 2036 per ounce, ultimately rebounding to the USD 2040 range and closing at USD 2043.42 per ounce, a gain of 0.09%.

Gold futures rose by 0.4%, closing at USD 2050 per ounce. If job growth significantly falls below expectations, it could validate market expectations for monetary easing in 2024. This would exert pressure on U.S. bond yields and the dollar, creating favorable conditions for a rebound in gold.

However, with the U.S. economy still growing and no clear signs that the Federal Reserve will consider a rate cut soon, this may impose some restraint on the upside potential for gold.

Another key factor influencing gold prices is the strength of the U.S. dollar, which typically has an inverse relationship with gold prices. Therefore, a strong dollar may limit the upward trend in gold prices or even cause a decline.

From a technical perspective, in the midst of volatile trading, gold faced renewed bearish pressure, falling back. In the Asia-Europe session, prices rebounded slightly but were pressured, quickly falling from near the USD 2051 level.

During the U.S. session, the decline continued, stabilizing and rebounding near the USD 2037-36 level. In the early morning, gold prices made a second attempt to rise but faced resistance around the USD 2047 level, leading to another pullback and a close with fluctuation.

Technical Analysis:

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks.

  • Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2055-2060.
  • Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2030-2025.

WTI Crude Oil >>

On Thursday, the impact of factors such as higher-than-expected U.S. crude oil inventories and a easing of concerns over the Red Sea crisis led to a decline in oil prices amid volatile and tug-of-war trading.

WTI crude oil futures closed down USD 0.51 per barrel, a decrease of 0.70%, settling at USD 72.19 per barrel. Earlier in the session, prices had risen by nearly 1.5% to USD 73.97 per barrel. Brent crude oil prices also fell, dropping USD 0.66 per barrel, a decrease of 0.8%, to close at USD 77.59 per barrel.

EIA data showed that despite a decrease of 5.5 million barrels in crude oil inventories this week, most of it reflected the interruption of Red Sea transportation. This forced many refineries and crude oil buyers to divert to the United States instead of navigating around the Horn of Africa.

Maersk announced on Thursday that four out of five container ships stranded in the Red Sea had successfully rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope and were now returning from the Red Sea to the Suez Canal, to avoid potential attacks by Houthi militants.

On the technical side, oil prices experienced an initial rise followed by a decline. During the Asia-Europe session, there was a slight rebound near the USD 72.8 level, followed by an accelerated push higher in the afternoon, breaking through the USD 74 level before facing resistance and falling into a volatile tug-of-war.

During the U.S. session, bearish momentum accelerated, breaking through the USD 72 level and stabilizing near USD 71 for a weak close.

Technical Analysis:

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks.

  • Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 74.0-75.0.
  • Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 71.0-71.6.

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