Safe-haven Demand Rises: Gold Surges Nearly USD 30, Oil Prices Edge Up by About 1%

Last Saturday evening, influenced by the escalation of the Middle East situation over the weekend, there was a push for safe-haven assets, causing the price of gold to briefly spike nearly USD 30.

However, the heightened risk sentiment did not sustain, and currently, the price of gold has retreated to USD 2354.19 per ounce. Due to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices edged up by about 1%.

Nevertheless, due to the pessimistic forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) regarding global oil demand growth, as well as the slowing expectations for US interest rate cuts, oil prices overall showed a downward trend last week.

Gold >>

Last Saturday evening, influenced by the escalation of the Middle East situation over the weekend, there was a push for safe-haven assets, causing the price of gold to briefly spike nearly USD 30. However, the heightened risk sentiment did not sustain.

Spot gold opened significantly higher on Monday, with gains extending to 1.2% at one point, reaching above USD 2370 per ounce. Currently, it is up 0.8% at USD 2354.19 per ounce. Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles towards Israel, boosting demand for gold as a safe haven.

However, most of the missiles and drones were intercepted, and there were no reports of casualties. Israel informed the United States that it does not intend to significantly escalate the conflict. As a result, the risk sentiment did not sustain.

If the situation in the Middle East does not deteriorate further, gold prices face the risk of short-term consolidation. Meanwhile, the market will closely monitor US consumer confidence data and comments from Federal Reserve policymakers.

On the technical side, gold prices initially started a unilateral upward trend from around the 2370 level in the morning session, further accelerating in the afternoon to breach the 2390 level.

In the evening US session, there was a rapid surge above the psychological level of 2400, reaching around 2431 before quickly retracing, leading to a rapid decline.

In the early morning, gold prices began a unilateral downward trend, breaking below the 2370 level to reach around 2333 before closing higher but still lower than the earlier high, forming a bearish engulfing pattern.

Overall, after a rapid surge above 2400, prices quickly retraced, and the closing price fell below the early rally point of 2370, indicating a deep correction.

Technical Analysis:

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks.

  • Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2460-2466.
  • Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2320-2326.

WTI Crude Oil >>  

Last Friday, influenced by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices edged up by approximately 1%. Brent crude futures rose by USD 0.71 per barrel to close at USD 90.45 per barrel, after experiencing a 0.8% decline last week.

WTI crude futures prices rose by USD 0.64 per barrel to close at USD 85.66 per barrel, but they saw a decline of over 1% for the week. The overall trend of oil prices last week was downward, influenced by the pessimistic forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) regarding global oil demand growth and the slowing expectations for US interest rate cuts.

Last week, concerns about the escalation of the situation in the Middle East led oil prices to approach six-month highs. Events in the Middle East raised concerns about supply disruptions, providing some support for oil prices.

Meanwhile, US energy companies reduced the number of operating oil rigs for the fourth consecutive week. According to data, as of the week ending April 12th, the number of oil and gas rigs decreased by 3 to 617, the lowest level since November, indicating a slowdown in US oil production growth.

Last Friday, oil prices experienced volatile trading with fluctuations between gains and losses. Prices stabilized and rose during the Asian and European sessions, finding support around the USD 85.4 level before further strengthening.

In the late US session, there was a rapid surge above the USD 86 level, reaching around USD 87.6, but prices quickly retreated.

Technical Analysis:

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks

  • Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 86.6-87.0.
  • Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 84.0-84.6.

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